In January and February 2022, the total amount of social logistics in China was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% calculated at comparable prices. The growth rate of social logistics continued the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level before the epidemic in 2019, indicating that the overall logistics demand is still in the recovery channel, and the logistics operation has started steadily.

From a structural perspective, the policy effect of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continues to emerge internally, with industrial and consumer logistics demand maintaining rapid growth; Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, and the demand for imported logistics continues to decline.

The demand for industrial logistics is growing rapidly, and new driving forces continue to strengthen

After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained a rapid growth. In January and February, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 7.5% year-on-year, which is 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.

From a structural perspective, new driving forces continue to exert force, enhancing their support for industrial logistics demand. The high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continue to grow rapidly. In January and February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates accelerating by 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points respectively compared to December last year.

From an industry perspective, the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and instrument manufacturing industry have all achieved double-digit growth, with growth rates accelerating month on month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 4.4 percentage points compared to December of the previous year. Especially, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow rapidly on the basis of the previous year's exponential growth.

The recovery of logistics demand for people's livelihood consumption accelerates the continuous development of new business models

In January and February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "Online New Year's Goods Festival", the demand for manufacturing and logistics of consumer goods on the production side accelerated its recovery, while the demand for logistics such as e-commerce and online shopping on the sales side did not decrease. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry is accelerating its recovery. In January and February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, which is 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.

From the perspective of sales, the role of new business models in assisting is still significant. In January and February, the total logistics volume of units and residential goods increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year, and the e-commerce logistics index showed that the year-on-year growth rate of e-commerce logistics business volume exceeded 25% in the first two months. The rural business volume also increased by nearly 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.

Import price increment drops, logistics demand continues to decline

Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's related imports. Data shows that from January to February, the import logistics volume decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. But it should also be noted that the decline in import logistics volume has narrowed compared to the previous year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the import scale will also expand.

From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite, and steel has all decreased due to factors such as significant price increases in bulk commodities, with cumulative year-on-year declines of 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9%, respectively; The import demand for meat in agricultural products continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 33%.

Expansion of logistics market scale and accelerated industry integration

The scale of the logistics market continues to expand, and industry integration is accelerating. Since 2021, the market size of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. In January and February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the pre pandemic level of 2019.

With the development and growth of new driving forces, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services, especially since the outbreak of the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The proportion of revenue of the top 50 logistics companies in China has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industry concentration has steadily increased. Segmented fields such as leading express delivery companies have further promoted industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions. According to data from the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index (CR8) of express and parcel services in January and February was 85.3, which has significantly increased compared to the whole year and the same period in 2021.

The transportation business is growing rapidly, and logistics enterprises are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the total freight volume in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with road freight volume growing by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business volume index in February did not decrease but instead increased, with the index rebounding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as resumption of work and production, both the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of enterprises have maintained a good growth trend, while logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operating efficiency. In February, the capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry prosperity index both rebounded by 0.1 percentage points month on month, maintaining above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting the proactive improvement of capital utilization efficiency and logistics equipment operation efficiency by enterprises, which played a certain regulatory role in the tight balance of personnel supply and demand in the first two months of the year.

Overall, the macroeconomic situation continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index are 50.2% and 59.7%, respectively, both higher than last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been running in the high prosperity range for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics companies have a positive outlook for the industry's development.

However, it should also be noted that since March, there has been an increase in unstable and uncertain factors, making it more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of its industrial and supply chains.

From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still ongoing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still ongoing, which may lead to difficulties in cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transportation capacity, rising freight rates, and increased pressure on key commodities to ensure supply and stable prices due to supply chain shocks. It is necessary to track and analyze these issues, and closely monitor them.

From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, and the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated

Firstly, the linkage between logistics service prices and costs is weak. Although raw material costs such as oil prices continue to rise, logistics service prices have not seen a significant increase. In February, the service price index in the logistics industry prosperity index did not rise but fell by 0.2 percentage points. The freight rates for highway logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell month on month, indicating that in the current context of homogeneous competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.

Secondly, the profitability level of the industry is further under pressure. Key survey data shows that the logistics business costs of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year from January to February, with a cost of 90.7 yuan per 100 yuan of operating income, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, due to factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs have risen by more than double digits respectively. From the perspective of profitability, the loss rate of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, leading to further compression of profit margins. The overall revenue profit margin is around 3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage to small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is more obvious, with a revenue profit margin of less than 3%, lower than the same period last year, and a significant gap compared to large and medium-sized enterprises.